by Alex Ho

• Grab Intro
• 核心業務
• Mobility
• Delivery - Food Delivery - GrabFood
• Delivery - Parcel Delivery - GrabExpress
• Financial Service
• Competition Landscape
• Grab vs. Goto - Revenue
• Platform GMV
• 現金流
• 財報 - 2022 Q2
• 摘要
• Mobility (叫車) 是 cash cow
• Grab 關閉 SG, VN, PH 的 “dark store”
• Digital Payment outside Grab Platform 市佔率下滑
• 推出 GrabUnlimited (月費 訂閱 loyalty program)
• GFG, Grab Financial Group
• Digital Bank
• 財報 - 2022 Q1
• Food Delivery & Parcel Delivery
• Mobility
• COVID-19 疫情趨緩， Mobility 需求成長，但司機數量不夠
• 相關參考資料

Grab Intro

• 東南亞洲最大的 on-demand platform
• Grab 從公司成立早期就注重 international expansion。但 Gojek 是在 印尼站穩腳步多年之後才開始進軍泰國、新加坡、越南等地
• Grab 力求 在 Mobility 和 Food Delivery 領域佔據市場
• Super App
• 在一個 App 中，提供消費者的多種基本所需服務，例如：叫車、餐點外送、生活雜貨外送、包裹快遞、行動支付、保險…etc
• 相似於：WeChat、美團
• 在東南亞 8 個國家 共超過 480 個城市 營運
• 大約有 三分之一 的生意是來自 印尼市場
• 2021.12 在美國透過 SPAC 上市 IPO
• 上市之後，股價大幅下滑
• 2021 全年虧損 34億 美金

核心業務

Mobility

• 2019 Q4 達成 EBITDA positive

Delivery - Food Delivery - GrabFood

Delivery - Parcel Delivery - GrabExpress

Financial Service

• 尚未取得 market leadership

EBITDA

• A measure of overall financial health for a business — stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
• It is a common earnings metric used by tech companies even though seasoned investors are skeptical about it

Competition Landscape

Grab vs. Goto - Revenue

To make effective comparisons, we need to first make sure we are comparing apple to apple. The three companies use very different terms in their reporting – this can make intuitive comparison obscure. For example, GoTo reports ‘gross revenue’ for on demand, while Grab reports ‘GMV’, ‘commission rate’ and ‘revenue’. Which metric of Grab is exactly comparable to the ‘gross revenue’? Well, Grab used to report “gross billings”, which is “GMV” times “commission rate” – that is the apple to apple comparison with on demand “gross revenue” of GoTo.

Platform GMV

AirAsia

Watch out Gojek and Grab, AirAsia Ride is about to invade your territories

Regional CEO of AirAsia Ride Lim Chiew Shan said the ride-hailing arm of Capital A will make its foray into the Indonesian market, precisely Bali, latest by November. As of Singapore, the company is in the midst of obtaining its license to operate its ride-hailing services in the city island.

techwireasia.com

Traveloka

Traveloka closes food, logistics services as travel takes off again

Traveloka, an Indonesia-based online travel company, announced that it is closing its on-demand logistics service Traveloka Send - which reportedly launched just two weeks ago - as well as online food delivery platform Traveloka Eats. In a statement, a representative of the firm said that the closures are part of Traveloka's business strategy and priorities.

www.techinasia.com

現金流

相較於 Goto ，Grab 有較充足的 cash balance

Grab’s net cash is at US$5.572 billion – cash liquidity of US$7.74 billion minus borrowings of US$2.168 billion. At the Q2 2022 rate of cash burn, it can last for about 4 years without additional cash raise – ample time for it to achieve self sufficiency

參考資料

Grab, GoTo and Shopee - how do Southeast Asia's tech giants stack against each other? - TLD by MW

After years of development, the market has come to a consensus that Southeast Asia's consumer tech space is now dominated by three publicly listed giants: Grab, GoTo and SEA Group. The three have overlapping businesses but are not exactly comparable in many dimensions. GoTo's Gojek competes against Grab in mobility and food delivery; GoTo's Tokopedia [...]

thelowdown.momentum.asia

財報 - 2022 Q2

參考資料

Grab reports strong Q2 results, but shares plunge anyway

After the intense reaction to Sea's Q2 results, investors in Southeast Asian super app Grab may have felt nervous as the company reported its Q2 results last Thursday evening. Alas, those nerves were justified.

www.techinasia.com

Can Grab hit the slab of profitability in 2024?

Grab has been struggling since it went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company in December last year. Now, it expects revenue to slow sharply still since its ride-hailing operation has yet to fully recover.

techwireasia.com

摘要

• Grab 預期能在 2024 H2 達成 profitability
• Grab 預期在 2023 能有 45~55% 的 YoY 成長

Mobility (叫車) 是 cash cow

• GMV, revenue, segment-adjusted EBITDA 都成長
• Mobility segment 賺的利潤 讓 Grab 能夠經營 其他仍在虧錢中的 segment (e.g. food delivery, Financial Service)

Grab 關閉 SG, VN, PH 的 “dark store”

• Dark Store 可能是指 Grab Supermarket
• firs-party marketplace model
• Sell groceries directly to customers
• 改成只做 third-party marketplace model
• Grab 提供 platform，讓 retails 在 Grab App 中賣雜貨給 Grab customers
• 但是 Grab MY 仍然 經營 Jaya Grocer 連鎖超市

Digital Payment outside Grab Platform 市佔率下滑

• 就是在 Grab App 以外的線上線下消費場景。例如在餐廳櫃檯用 GrabPay 付款
• Off-platform segment’s share of TPV (total payment)
• 2020 Q1: 47%
• 2022 Q2: 40%
• 可能原因：
• 在 Gojek 與 Tokopedia 合併之後， OVO Pay (Grab 的 partner in ID) 受到影響，導致 TPV 下降
• Tokopedia favors Gojek’s Gopay for its transactions

推出 GrabUnlimited (月費 訂閱 loyalty program)

• 月費 SG: 7.99 SGD per month
• 必須使用 GrabPay wallet 支付 月費

(As of 2022.09)

GrabUnlimited which is now in five countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. Currently, average GrabFood GMV from GrabUnlimited subscribers is 2.4 times higher than from non-subscribers, with subscribers also transacting 2 times more on average compared to non-subscribers.

GFG, Grab Financial Group

• 營收
• 成長快速， YOY +97%
• 但是營收只占據全公司營收的 4% 而已
• Loan
• Loan disbursement 量體成長快速，但壞帳 (credit loss) 沒有暴增。大概是因為 Grab 能善加利用 delivery partner 及 restaurant merchant 的 “個人 使用 Grab 服務的歷史交易紀錄” 來預先判斷 “償還貸款的能力

Digital Bank

• GXS Bank
• Grab 即將在 2022 年底之前在新加坡上線 digital bank
• Grab 與 Singtel 合作的銀行

財報 - 2022 Q1

Notes

1. 營收 $228B ，營收成長，停止連續四季下跌
2. 虧損 (Adjusted EBITDA) 雖然比 2021 Q4 低，但 YOY 負成長
3. 總補貼 (incentives) 5.60億美金較上季5.83億美金略降4%
1. Driver Partner Incentives
• 2022 Q1: $47M USD
• 2021 Q1: $22M USD

外賣配送盈利是否為芝諾悖論(Zeno's paradox)：按照公司給的預期，收入還有大幅增長的空間，2022Q2的交易額低標YoY預期增長81%；全年收入低標YoY預期增長78%。如果是在2020年，這樣的增長模型肯定能得到資本市場青睞，但是當前市場氛圍已判若雲泥。我們推估Grab全年虧損估計仍會在10億美金以上，不過帳上流動資產達81億美金足可支付。當前最大的問題是，Grab還是一家以配送為主的SuperAPP，交易額中配送/網約車的佔比大約7:3，而當前全世界除了美團，還沒有任何公司，包括Uber、DoorDash(NYSE: DASH)、GoTo(IDX: GOTO)，證明了外賣配送在GAAP財務模型中能長期盈利。是否外賣配送會是一個終究難以盈利的芝諾悖論，是當前Grab估值模型中的最大風險，Grab希望以Grab Pay與網路銀行業務闖下新天地，成果也尚待觀察。

Food Delivery & Parcel Delivery

1. 2022 H1 通貨膨脹，食材原料價格上漲，侵蝕 餐廳利潤
2. 如果餐廳直接把原料成本直接反映到餐點價格，可能使業績下滑 (e.g. 消費者選擇自己在家煮飯)
3. 餐廳 Merchants 必須支付 訂單金額的 24~27% 給 Grab 做為 佣金

Mobility

COVID-19 疫情趨緩， Mobility 需求成長，但司機數量不夠

1. Grab 需要控制 Driver Incentives
1. Anthony Tan said he expected “mobility supply to stabilize in the second half of the year with driver incentives as a percentage of GMV tapering in that period.”
2. 通貨膨脹影響 driver 的可支配收入 (take home pay)
1. PH:
1. Grab Philippines offers fuel discounts with partner gas companies and announced that it is rolling out 25 million pesos (US$478,000) in additional incentives and fuel subsidies this year.
2. Ride-hailing 價格受到政府控管，民間公司不能擅自調高 base fare
2. SG , VN: Grab 和 Gojek 提高 customer fee，用來補貼 driver
3. ID, MY: 政府提供油價補貼。印尼油價相對來說較穩定

參考資料：

Grab Holdings Limited's (GRAB) CEO Anthony Tan On Q1 2022 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: GRAB) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call May 19, 2022 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Vivian Tong - Head of US Investor Relations Anthony Tan - Chief Executive Officer Peter Oey - Chief Financial Officer Ming Maa - President Conference Call Participants Alicia Yap - Citigroup Navin Killa - UBS Mark Mahaney - Evercore Pang Vittayaamnuaykoon - Goldman Sachs Ranjan Sharma - JPMorgan Venugopal Garre - Bernstein Thomas Chong - Jefferies Sachin Salgaonkar - Bank of America Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today.

seekingalpha.com

相關參考資料

2022.09 from 墨騰創投

Tech in Asia 整理的 Grab 財務狀況 (不定期更新)

Grab's financial health in 9 charts

Southeast Asian super app Grab just announced its second quarter 2022 results. Below are nine charts - updated by quarter - that track the company's perfo

www.techinasia.com

外賣 Food Delivery 市場 (from 墨騰創投）

High inflation poses danger to Grab, Gojek, Foodpanda - and their merchants too

Marlon, a Grab food delivery rider in the Philippines, says he can take home about 1,000 pesos (US$19.09) a day if he makes about 15 trips. But higher fuel costs are eating into his earnings. A day's worth of deliveries now costs 300 pesos in gasoline for his motorcycle, 67% higher than the average 180 pesos before the price surge started in late February.

www.techinasia.com

Grab Assistant 在印尼改名 GrabJastip

About me

• Linkedin profile: Alex Ho
• Software Product Manager.
• 10 years of experience as software product manager in these areas: #ecommerce #SaaS #SoutheastAsia #delivery #MarTech #SuperApp #OnlineLearning
• Work experiences in Taipei, Singapore, and Shanghai.
• Currently based in Taipei City, Taiwan.